Who benefits

Lucius Cassius was a Roman judge with a reputation for severity. Cicero tells us that he asked one question again and again in his cases. CUI·BONO? Who benefited? The question points to motive, and motive tells us which evidence someone had reason to produce.

We use his question as our first tool. Before we ask what a study says, we ask who paid for it. Before we trust advice on food, medicine or money, we ask what the adviser earns if we follow it. The answer does not make a claim false. It tells us how carefully to read it.

Modern life is full of well-paid expertise. A cereal company is paid to want breakfast to be cereal. The seed-oil industry is paid to want frying to be cheap. An app is paid to want our evenings. None of this requires a conspiracy. It only requires incentives, and incentives are easy to see once we look for them.

The answer does not make a claim false. It tells us how carefully to read it.

Statistics can be argued forever. One study answers another and the reader is left with noise. Incentives are more stable. They explain why some studies get funded and others do not, and why some advice is repeated everywhere while other advice is never heard.

The rule applies to us too. This publication will earn money. When it does, we will say how, so that readers can ask CUI·BONO of us as well. A tradition that cannot pass its own test is not worth keeping.

For the Romans, PRUDENTIA meant practical wisdom, the ability to see ahead and choose well. We think it begins with one habit. Before we believe, we look at who gains.